Renewable Carbon Initiative (RCI) together with the joint project of the Bio-based Industries Consortium (BIC), has published a study that explores whether agricultural and woody biomass combined sustainably provide enough biomass to meet 20% of the future carbon demand of the chemical and derived materials industries in 2050. The study confirms this target for biomass carbon supply is achievable and sustainable without compromising food, feed, and biofuel demands.
The study highlights that agricultural production and industrial roundwood supply are expected to rise significantly, playing a crucial role in reaching the 20% biomass carbon target.
“By 2050, under the BAU (business as usual) scenario, production is projected to increase by 31% to 5.07 billion tonnes. Cereals increase by 32% to 3.1 billion tonnes, sugar by 40% to 340 million tonnes and vegetable oils by 45% to 317 million tonnes (see Fig. 2). In the Green [low resource depletion] LRD scenarios, production is projected to increase by 24–26%, and in the Green HT (high tech) scenarios by 38–53% – compared to 31% in the BAU scenario.”
Similarly, the global industrial roundwood supply (coniferous and non-coniferous) is expected to rise by 38% between 2020 and 2050, from 0.9 to 1.3 billion tdm. The largest increase in supply is expected in Asia (69%), including China and Russia, but a significant increase of 32% is also seen for Europe.
The report concludes that it seems a realistic and achievable estimate to sustainably meeting 20% of total carbon demand of the chemicals and derived materials sector in 2050 via biomass.
Despite these positive projections, the study also highlights a key challenge: growing competition for biomass resources, particularly from sectors like sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).
Find out more about the study at https://renewable-carbon.eu/publications/product/is-there-enough-biomass-to-defossilise-the-chemicals-and-derived-materials-sector-by-2050-a-joint-bic-and-rci-scientific-background-report/